Thursday, May 1, 2008

GOP: Alex Primer 101

Now that the free world can catch it's breath with the factional intramural over (at least for a day) on the Summit County GOP front here's some observations and thoughts coming out of Alex's victories and one small step turning into a giant leap for the opposition.

First, it was pretty clear from the start that despite the appearance of chaos with a full house squeezing into tight Tangier quarters the A-team had a plan and strategy, and it included making the New Summit Republicans eat some of their own strategy. Tops: you wanted a secret ballot, you'll live with it. With party cameras rolling to keep everything on-the-record -- a nice lesson learned from the impact of Jennifer Brunner's deposition -- Alex Arshinkoff cloaked himself in the Mr. Fairness mantra, telling his own supporters they had to sit in place and not escape to the bathroom as each vote was called out one-by-one, all 365 counted. That set the tone on just how long it would take this game to play out by the NSR's wishes and most in the crowd clearly wanted to get going, especially after seeing the Arshinkoff forces work up a dominating more than 2-to-1 vote margin. Voting by raised hands was a no-brainer after that.

I don't think the threat of "intimidation" voiced by the NSR's had a thing to do with it; it had everything to do with individual convenience and comfort, a basic consideration in event planning and something clearly taken into account by Arshinkoff. He could easily afford to overrule his own vocal supporters when they booed or tried to silence NSR's Kevin Coughlin, imploring them to let Kevin be heard. It's easy to be magnanimous when you hold the cards, and the first vote was a clear sign Alex was ready to clear the table.

There's been plenty of confusion on just what post does what: a colleague called this morning trying to figure it out as well, asking who won to be the party boss? The answer in politics, as in the military, is never that simple. The strategy of securing the overall Central Committee chair position was brilliant and clearly set the NSR's on their heels. They could only watch as Arshinkoff extended every possible courtesy to make sure there were few grounds to grumble they'd been run over by the A-train. Carol Klinger, prepared to campaign, found herself a warrior without battlefield when the decision was Arshinkoff versus Varian. Even some of the more vocal Alex critics think the GOP was skunked by Brunner's decision to insert herself in local GOP politics and it isn't much of a leap to see Democrat meddling underneath the rocks. Local republicans may be paranoid...but that doesn't mean Wayne Jones isn't out to get them.

What makes this struggle fascinating is just how political skill and maneuvering, despite the overreaching and some nasty tactics, played a role in Arshinkoff's victory. It was clearly his crowd last night, showing the NSR's have more work ahead in building their parallel organization. For all the talk of party building, the best strategy for NSR is to make sure they put a majority of their own butts in those Central Committee seats so they don't even need to sabre-rattle over rules. Arshinkoff knew how to run his meeting: his lieutenants Jack Morrison and Jim Laria had their orders and troops ready to go and it didn't hurt that the "surprise" move to run for Central Committee chair meant the fight over who would chair the Executive Committee didn't mean a thing. It took away the standard from the NSR's standard-bearer, leaving them with a front man tainted by the stench of the Board of Election's musical chairs whether he deserved the criticism or not.

It's important to note there are TWO chair positions in most party structures: the Central Committee boss usually runs the annual meeting, presides over the annual dinners and can serve as a figurehead. The Executive Committee is where the heavy lifting comes in providing people, vote support, organization and money and those folks don't even have to be members of the Central Committee. The EC has it's own chair and while that position usually serves to run the day-to-day, Ohio law pretty much allows local political parties to set their own guidelines and structure as long as they don't go overboard and start trampling over the rest of the Ohio Revised Code. It's why Brunner's actions seem so heavy-handed; government has a long tradition of being formed by politics but for the most part staying out of how political parties want to do their business. It's the ultimate expression of Capitalism: let the parties (business) do their thing and let the voter (buyer) sort it all out when it's time to buy

Important to note: Arshinkoff was ready with strategy supporting his rules, including plans to revise the rules; he had his slate of officers up-front and clearly expressed and listening to his slate for Executive Committee, which includes Klinger and other critics, shows he knows the wisdom of the old adage about keeping your friends close but keep your enemies closer. Working with the NSR quiets the storm and helps refocus the party message on candidates. His message of putting the rancor behind everyone and work toward November positions him as a uniter, taking away a top issue his critics use against him. When he says he wants resources used to help candidates instead of in-fighting it has resonance with rank-and-file Republicans who would like to see more wins and less sibling squabbling.

There were bright spots for the NSR effort: 115 voters show there's a chink in the armour and serves to keep the King aware he's being watched. It establishes a credibility baseline for the next challenge in two years, which should be enough time to do what they tried to accomplish in six months: truly build the grass roots support to the level where they can win and not just serve as the opposition.

The question leading into November is whether they will be loyal opposition; given the historic nature of the race at the top of the ticket and two solid candidates in Laria and Pry facing off for the County's top executive position makes sitting on the sidelines unpalatable but the GOP does have a record of preferring to be right than win (see: Goldwater in 1964) but even those occasions helped lay the groundwork for revolutions to come (see: Reagan in 1980, Bush in 2000) when managed correctly. 115 is a number that shows a good start; 260 shows the Old Guard is paying attention.

1 comment:

  1. No, I dont think AA will ever win over those 115 that went against him, but there is no guarantee they will be on CC next time either. He could run someone against them. But after he loses big in 2008 again maybe more people will turn against him.

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