Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Tuesdays With Alex

Summit County GOP Chairman Alex Arshinkoff did something he usually never does today: a sit-down with reporters, an actual, honest-to-God news conference to talk about the counting from his vantage point of Central Committee members who will decide the direction of the party.

This is the election that keeps on giving; members of the Central Committee will be the ones to elect the local GOP Executive Committee, which in turn elects the Chairman. That's the way it's been for the better part of three decades with Arshinkoff at the helm, either as the saviour of the local Republican effort or the devil taking the local party down (depending on your point of view.)

Just about a third of the more than 450 committee posts were contested in last Tuesday's primary election and Alex says his side picked up 87; he says rival State Senator Kevin Coughlin's troops took 72 with four still ties. No decision on when the Central Committee as a whole meets, says Arshinkoff, until the primary numbers are certified by the Summit County Board of Elections. When I spoke with Coughlin last Wednesday he expected such a meeting could come as early as the end of March but much depends on final counting at the BOE. Nice to see both sides agree on something here.

AkronNewsNow's Tina Kaufmann has posted her story here, complete with audio from Arshinkoff and Coughlin reaction. However, we can note a couple of things to watch for:

  • Just how much of a battle can we expect over the four ties?
  • Arshinkoff says a handful (seven) committee positions could actually be claimed by both sides as supporters -- folks on the Alex-Kevin fence;
  • Just what will the rules be in the actual voting? Coughlin indicated he thinks he will pick up quiet support from members if they cast secret ballots.

All interesting issues to consider ahead of the next round in what we've been calling the "Elephant Wars" in this classic struggle for control of the party that realistically doesn't stand a chance of achieving dominant wins with half the county (Akron) still 9-1 in the blue but the suburbs more to the purple or red.

Summit County is important to state Republicans because it's one of those gateway counties; to the north lies the Democrat Fortress of Solitude in Cleveland, to the south the GOP's promised land of rolling hills, farms, and subdivisions. When Coughlin talks about how Summit GOP candidates should do better he's talking about the suburban races the Republicans actually have a chance of winning; when Arshinkoff talks about staying competitive he's really talking about keeping the Democrats at no more than 60-65% which means a Republican candidate has a chance when the 'burbs and rural areas start to kick in.

At least, that's been the model that worked for the past three decades -- maybe this year will be different with the first election since 1952 to feature a Presidential ticket led by candidates with virtually zero true government executive experience. Even in the Reagan v Mondale, Bush 41 v Dukakis and Clinton 2 v Dole races at least one of the candidates had a clue on what holding the big office really means -- statewide or nationally.

This election, though, is different. No clear decision on who has more real experience, no matter how many times Hillary's red phone rings at three in the morning and McCain draws on his heroic history. I get a sense from listening to supporters (and detractors) that this election has more to do with who the heart says to vote for instead of the brain, and that may be enough to short-circuit the traditional wisdom of how to build a winner in Ohio -- and make no mistake we've earned our role as a microcosm for the rest of the country. It is also why the 35% solution for the GOP in Summit County may be a strategy outdated by the unique nature of candidates we're expecting to choose based on whether they uplift, repulse, or follow despite core value misgivings.

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